Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting3-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Siri homered to left (401 feet).10–6
- 8Grissom homered to right center (384 feet), O'Hoppe scored, Neto scored and Trout scored.9–6
- 8O'Hoppe doubled to right, Peraza scored.5–6
- 6Pérez homered to left (386 feet).4–6
- 5Jones singled to right, McGonigle scored, Greene to second, Dingler to third.4–5
- 5McGonigle tripled to right, Vierling scored and Pérez scored.4–4
- 4McKinstry hit sacrifice fly to right, Keith scored.4–2
- 4Neto doubled to left, Walton scored.4–1
- 4Adell homered to left (407 feet).3–1
- 3Grissom singled to center, O'Hoppe scored and Neto scored, Grissom to second.2–1
- 2McKinstry hit sacrifice fly to center, Keith scored, Torkelson to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML LAA +114 / DET -137
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- DET: Elo 61.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | 0 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +80 Elo | DET 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 28th of 308–18 | Road vs home | 13–1215th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 29th of 301442 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–29 | 23–28–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–11 DET in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 20.