Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-4
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7McGonigle scored on a passed ball by O'Hoppe, Dingler to third on passed ball by O'Hoppe.0–4
- 7McGonigle scored on a passed ball by O'Hoppe, Dingler to third on passed ball by O'Hoppe.0–4
- 5Greene singled to right, McGonigle scored, Greene safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Adell, Dingler safe at third on error.0–3
- 2Torkelson homered to left (373 feet).0–2
- 1Dingler singled to center, Keith scored, Dingler thrown out at second, McGonigle to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML LAA -108 / DET -112
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- DET: Elo 57.6%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- LAA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.7 – 3.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +53 Elo | DET 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 26th of 309–18 | Road vs home | 13–1317th of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 29th of 301445 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–30 | 23–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 22–19 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–29 | 24–28–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–11 DET in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 21.