Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Peters singled to left, Meidroth scored, Gonzalez to second.1–2
- 7Montgomery homered to right center (373 feet).1–1
- 1Torkelson doubled to left, McGonigle scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 55%
- ML DET +113 / CHW -136
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- CHW: Elo 50.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -123
- DET +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −16 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +5 Elo | CHW 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 308–23 | Road vs home | 19–114th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301477 | Elo rating | 147325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–34 | 31–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 25–31–3 | 34–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 26–15 CHW in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 41.