Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Edgar QueroBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi homered to right (368 feet), Quero scored.1–7
- 8Montgomery homered to right center (372 feet).1–5
- 7Nishida singled to right, Benintendi scored.1–4
- 7Quero homered to left (371 feet).1–3
- 3Pérez homered to left center (386 feet).1–2
- 1Quero hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored.0–2
- 1Meidroth scored on Valdez wild pitch, Montgomery to second on wild pitch by Valdez, Vargas to third on wild pitch by Valdez.0–1
- 1Meidroth scored on Valdez wild pitch, Montgomery to second on wild pitch by Valdez, Vargas to third on wild pitch by Valdez.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -121 / CHW +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- DET: Elo 46.2%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- CHW +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +10 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +27 Elo | CHW 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 30th of 308–22 | Road vs home | 18–117th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301480 | Elo rating | 147027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–33 | 30–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–21 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 24–31–3 | 33–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 26–14 CHW in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 40.