Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Reds- Blake DunnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Loftin homered to left center (381 feet), Massey scored.5–2
- 9Massey singled to right, Tolbert scored.3–2
- 5Dunn homered to left (368 feet), McLain scored.2–2
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (377 feet), Witt Jr. scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 59%
- ML KC +134 / CIN -162
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -145
- KC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.6 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +20 | KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +39 Elo | CIN 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 30th of 308–21 | Road vs home | 16–1517th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301480 | Elo rating | 148918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–30 | 32–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–32–1 | 37–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–6 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.