Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino singled to center, Garcia scored, Perez to third.1–9
- 8Pederson homered to right (339 feet).0–9
- 6Lopez homered to right center (397 feet), Jansen scored.0–8
- 5Nimmo homered to right (435 feet), Jung scored.0–6
- 1Carter scored on throwing error by catcher Perez, Osuna stole third.0–4
- 1Carter scored on throwing error by catcher Perez, Osuna stole third.0–4
- 1Duran scored on error, Osuna safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Loftin, Carter safe at third on error.0–3
- 1Duran singled to center, Pederson scored and Burger scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML KC +114 / TEX -137
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −9 | KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +10 Elo | TEX 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 307–17 | Road vs home | 12–1320th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 20th of 301483 | Elo rating | 150014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–28 | 24–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 24–31–1 | 21–30–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–11 TEX in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.