New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8McMahon homered to left (369 feet), Grisham scored.7–0
- 7Rice singled to right, McMahon scored and Volpe scored, Goldschmidt to third.5–0
- 7Carter Jensen challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Paul Goldschmidt walks. Trent Grisham scores. Anthony Volpe to 3rd. Ryan McMahon to 2nd.3–0
- 4Judge hit sacrifice fly to right, Rice scored.2–0
- 4Rice tripled to left, Goldschmidt scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -156 / KC +129
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 3.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −4 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +54 Elo | NYY 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 15–1620th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301554 | Elo rating | 148619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–25 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–23 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–29–4 | 24–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 23–5 KC in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 28.