New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Volpe singled to left, Schuemann scored and Chisholm Jr. scored, Volpe thrown out at second.4–3
- 8Witt Jr. homered to left (432 feet).2–3
- 6Perez homered to left center (422 feet).2–2
- 2Massey hit sacrifice fly to center, Perez scored.2–1
- 2Caballero singled to center, Volpe scored, Escarra to third.2–0
- 2Bellinger homered to right center (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -137 / KC +114
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +3 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +34 Elo | NYY 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 11th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 15–1418th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301550 | Elo rating | 149017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–24 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–22 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–28–4 | 23–29–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 21–5 KC in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 26.