Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4
- Drew RasmussenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Judge homered to right center (363 feet), Schuemann scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 56%
- ML TB +117 / NYY -141
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.8%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -127
- TB +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −3 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +40 Elo | NYY 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 16–94th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–16 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–8 | 23–22 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 24–22–3 | 21–27–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 22–21 NYY in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 43.