Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Richie PalaciosBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. tripled to right, Bellinger scored.4–2
- 8Vilade hit sacrifice fly to left, Williams scored, Palacios to second.4–1
- 8Palacios singled to center, Aranda scored and Caminero scored, Díaz to third.3–1
- 8Aranda doubled to center, Simpson scored, Caminero to third.1–1
- 5Wells homered to right center (392 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML TB +128 / NYY -154
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -138
- TB +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +37 Elo | NYY 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 16–82nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–16 | 28–23 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–8 | 23–21 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 24–21–3 | 21–26–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 21–21 NYY in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 42.