Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena doubled to left, Naylor scored.6–8
- 9Naylor singled to center, Rodríguez scored.5–8
- 9Rodríguez singled to right, Emerson scored.4–8
- 8Garcia singled to left, Tolbert scored and Collins scored.3–8
- 7Perez singled to left, Pasquantino scored.3–6
- 7Crawford singled to left, Garver scored, Emerson to second.3–5
- 7Emerson singled to left, Canzone scored, Garver to second.2–5
- 6Isbel hit sacrifice fly to right, Collins scored.1–5
- 5Jensen doubled to center, Perez scored and Pasquantino scored.1–4
- 5Perez singled to left, Isbel scored and Massey scored, Pasquantino to second.1–2
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (405 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -127 / KC +106
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.8%, market 53.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -115
- KC +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −6 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +26 Elo | SEA 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 14–1418th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 11th of 301516 | Elo rating | 148819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–32 | 26–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–29 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–28–3 | 22–29–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 14–11 KC in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.