Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting3-3
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Mariners challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Isaac Collins singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Carter Jensen scores.0–5
- 3Jensen hit sacrifice fly to left, Witt Jr. scored.0–4
- 1Caglianone singled to right, Pasquantino scored.0–3
- 1Jensen grounded out to first, Witt Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pasquantino grounded into fielder's choice to second, Garcia scored on error, Witt Jr. safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Young.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -131 / KC +108
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.2%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -118
- KC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 3.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +12 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +8 Elo | SEA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 13–1422nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 11th of 301519 | Elo rating | 148520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–31 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–28 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–27–3 | 22–28–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 14–10 KC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.