Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4
- Noah CameronPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Garver homered to left (406 feet), Young scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -121 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.3%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- KC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 3.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −8 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 17th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 13–1318th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 148720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–31 | 25–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 22–26–3 | 22–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 13–10 KC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.