New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Amed RosarioBatting4-6, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rosario homered to right center (381 feet), Rice scored.15–1
- 8Wells singled to right, Volpe scored.13–1
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (416 feet).12–1
- 7Grisham homered to right center (414 feet).11–1
- 5Judge doubled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Grisham to third.10–1
- 3Witt Jr. homered to right center (386 feet).9–1
- 3Bellinger singled to right, Volpe scored and Wells scored, Judge thrown out at third.9–0
- 3Grisham grounded out to first, Rosario scored, Wells to second, Volpe to third.7–0
- 3Volpe singled to left, Rice scored, Rosario to second.6–0
- 2Volpe homered to center (409 feet).5–0
- 1Rosario homered to left center (420 feet), Rice scored.4–0
- 1Yankees challenged (catch or drop), call on the field was overturned: Ben Rice singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Paul Goldschmidt scores.2–0
- 1Bellinger homered to right (387 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML NYY -199 / KC +163
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.2%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -175
- KC +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 3.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −4 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +64 Elo | NYY 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 10th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 15–1517th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301551 | Elo rating | 148919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–25 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–23 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–29–4 | 23–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 22–5 KC in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 27.