Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 3Smith singled to center, Trammell scored on error, Smith safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Carter.5–1
- 3Trammell doubled to right, Paredes scored.4–1
- 2Jung homered to left center (424 feet).3–1
- 1Paredes homered to left (357 feet), Alvarez scored.3–0
- 1Peña homered to left (424 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML HOU +123 / TEX -149
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.9%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -133
- HOU +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.2 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +10 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 12–1215th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 17th of 301489 | Elo rating | 150314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–32 | 24–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 20–20 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–22–4 | 21–29–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4–3 | 4–3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 30–22 TEX in their last 52 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 52.