Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pederson homered to right center (402 feet).4–3
- 8Trammell hit sacrifice bunt, Walker scored, Trammell to first on throwing error by pitcher Alexander, Trammell to third.4–2
- 8Alvarez homered to center (448 feet).3–2
- 4Alvarez homered to center (428 feet).2–2
- 3Pederson homered to right center (423 feet).1–2
- 2Shewmake hit sacrifice fly to center, Trammell scored.1–1
- 1Nimmo singled to right, Pederson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML HOU +124 / TEX -149
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.9%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -134
- HOU +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.2 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +34 Elo | TEX 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.011th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 12–1114th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 17th of 301488 | Elo rating | 150414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–32 | 24–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 19–20 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–22–3 | 21–29–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 29–22 TEX in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 51.