Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching6.0 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peña homered to center (454 feet).7–10
- 8Duran singled to left, Burger scored, Carter to second.6–10
- 8Smith homered to left center (457 feet).6–9
- 8Alvarez homered to right (422 feet).5–9
- 4Salazar hit by pitch, Smith scored, Matthews to second, Shewmake to third.4–9
- 3Carter homered to right (359 feet).3–9
- 3Alvarez homered to right center (449 feet), Matthews scored and Peña scored.3–8
- 1Pederson homered to right (399 feet), Duran scored and Higashioka scored.0–8
- 1Duran doubled to center, Carter scored.0–5
- 1Carter tripled to right, Jung scored and Burger scored.0–4
- 1Burger singled to center, Nimmo scored and Osuna scored, Jung to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML HOU +109 / TEX -132
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +3 | HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +13 Elo | TEX 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 11–1117th of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 17th of 301489 | Elo rating | 150214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–31 | 23–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 9–18 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–22–3 | 20–29–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 29–21 TEX in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 50.