Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting0-3
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Allen singled to left, Meyers scored and Smith scored, Matthews to third.9–0
- 7Walker homered to left center (401 feet), Vázquez scored and Peña scored.7–0
- 5Peña singled to right, Allen scored, Vázquez to third.4–0
- 5Vázquez reached on bunt single to pitcher, Dezenzo scored, Allen to second.3–0
- 4Alvarez homered to center (415 feet).2–0
- 1Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to center, Peña scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML HOU -101 / TEX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.0%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.9 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −8 | HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +42 Elo | TEX 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 3011–17 | Road vs home | 11–1015th of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 150614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–31 | 23–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 18–19 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–22–3 | 19–29–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 28–21 TEX in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 49.