Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Massey homered to right center (401 feet), Collins scored.3–6
- 7Thomas singled to left, Massey scored.1–6
- 4Jung singled to left, Higashioka scored and Lopez scored, Pederson to second.0–6
- 1Higashioka doubled to center, Osuna scored.0–4
- 1Osuna singled to right, Duran scored.0–3
- 1Duran tripled to left, Jung scored and Burger scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML KC -108 / TEX -112
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -102
- KC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +41 Elo | TEX 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–19 | Road vs home | 14–1314th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301479 | Elo rating | 150514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–29 | 25–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–31–1 | 23–30–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–13 TEX in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.