Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran singled to right, Nimmo scored, Burger to second.6–7
- 9Burger singled to right, Jung scored, Nimmo to third.6–6
- 9Pederson homered to right (367 feet).6–5
- 8Jansen doubled to left, Burger scored, Duran to third.6–4
- 8Jensen homered to left (364 feet), Collins scored.6–3
- 7Pasquantino doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Garcia to third.4–3
- 7Garcia singled to center, Jensen scored, Witt Jr. to third.3–3
- 7Witt Jr. singled to left, Loftin scored, Jensen to second.2–3
- 7Jensen singled to left, Collins scored, Loftin to second.1–3
- 4Lopez singled to center, Duran scored.0–3
- 4Jansen grounded out to third, Burger scored, Duran to third.0–2
- 1Jung homered to left (399 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML KC -102 / TEX -118
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.3%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- TEX -107
- KC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −14 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +37 Elo | TEX 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–18 | Road vs home | 13–1317th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 21st of 301480 | Elo rating | 150414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–29 | 25–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–31–1 | 22–30–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–12 TEX in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.