Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Reds- JJ BledayBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Acuña Jr. homered to center (405 feet).5–2
- 7Olson homered to center (403 feet).4–2
- 5Mateo homered to left (410 feet).3–2
- 3Acuña Jr. homered to right center (368 feet).2–2
- 2Bleday homered to right (363 feet), Steer scored.1–2
- 2Yastrzemski singled to center, Albies scored, Dubón to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML ATL -130 / CIN +108
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.5%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -118
- CIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −12 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +46 Elo | ATL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 1st of 3022–9 | Road vs home | 14–1314th of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 148929th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 149217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–19 | 31–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–15 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27–4 | 35–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 13–7 CIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.