Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Gasper scored and Sogard scored.7–6
- 8Harris II homered to center (423 feet), Yastrzemski scored.7–4
- 7Kiner-Falefa homered to left center (393 feet).5–4
- 6Gasper grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Abreu scored, Yoshida out at second, Contreras to third.5–3
- 6Acuña Jr. singled to left, Harris II scored.5–2
- 6Smith grounded out to first, White scored, Harris II to third.4–2
- 6Harris II hit a ground rule double, Riley scored, White to third.3–2
- 5Olson homered to right (428 feet), Dubón scored.2–2
- 1Rafaela homered to left (368 feet).0–2
- 1Duran homered to right (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML ATL -107 / BOS -112
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.3%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -102
- ATL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +9 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +2 Elo | BOS 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 1st of 3019–8 | Road vs home | 8–1730th of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 150813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–18 | 21–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–15 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–27–3 | 23–28–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 9–8 BOS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.