Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Tromp singled to center, White scored.4–5
- 10Dubón reached on infield single to shortstop, Tromp scored, Acuña Jr. to second.4–4
- 10Tromp singled to center, Kim scored.4–3
- 10Abrams tripled to right, Wood scored and Chaparro scored.4–2
- 8Abrams homered to right center (405 feet).2–2
- 7Kim reached on bunt single to first, Riley scored, Smith to second.1–2
- 7Smith singled to right, Harris II scored, Riley to third.1–1
- 6Mead homered to left center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 63%
- ML WSH +159 / ATL -194
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 63.8%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -171
- WSH +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | WSH: Richard Lovelady: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +98 Elo | ATL 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 16–82nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 28th of 301459 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–22 | 36–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 23–12 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 32–15–4 | 23–25–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 18–25 ATL in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 43.