Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II homered to center (404 feet).9–3
- 8Dubón singled to center, Albies scored and Smith scored, Dubón to second.8–3
- 7Stowers homered to right center (382 feet).6–3
- 6Yastrzemski doubled to center, Smith scored, Yastrzemski out stretching at third.6–2
- 5Acuña Jr. singled to center, Yastrzemski scored and Kim scored.5–2
- 4Stowers homered to right center (371 feet).3–2
- 3Caissie homered to right center (403 feet).3–1
- 2Yastrzemski homered to right center (398 feet).3–0
- 1Harris II homered to center (418 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML ATL -137 / MIA +114
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 3.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +3 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +34 Elo | ATL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.0 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 1st of 3018–8 | Road vs home | 15–1415th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 147625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–15 | 19–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–12 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders | 22–25–3 | 31–17–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 30–15 MIA in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 45.