Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kim singled to center, Riley scored, Tromp to third.8–4
- 8Olson singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored and Kim scored, Dubón to third.7–4
- 8Dubón reached on infield single to first, Yastrzemski scored, Acuña Jr. to second, Kim to third.5–4
- 6Harris II homered to center (421 feet).4–4
- 5Olson doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.3–4
- 3Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Lopez scored, Morel to third.2–4
- 1Stowers doubled to right, Ruiz scored and Lopez scored.2–3
- 1Edwards homered to left (385 feet).2–1
- 1Harris II singled to right, Dubón scored, Olson to third.2–0
- 1Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Dubón to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML ATL -143 / MIA +118
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- MIA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −13 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +51 Elo | ATL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–8 | Road vs home | 15–1212th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–15 | 19–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–12 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders | 20–25–3 | 29–17–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 28–15 MIA in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 43.