Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-2
- JR RitchiePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Edwards homered to left center (397 feet).0–12
- 5Sanoja homered to left (375 feet), Marsee scored, Norby scored and Mack scored.0–11
- 5Mack walked, Stowers scored, Norby to second, Marsee to third.0–7
- 4Hicks doubled to center, Edwards scored and Mack scored.0–6
- 4Edwards reached on infield single to shortstop, Norby scored, Mack to second.0–4
- 4Mack singled to right, Marsee scored and Stowers scored, Norby to third.0–3
- 2Mack grounded out to first, Marsee scored, Norby to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML ATL -105 / MIA -114
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 43.1%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | ATL: JR Ritchie: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +48 Elo | ATL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–7 | Road vs home | 14–1215th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 5th of 301541 | Elo rating | 147625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–14 | 18–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–12 | 10–16 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25–3 | 28–17–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 28–14 MIA in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 42.