Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Dominic SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-4
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith tripled to center, Smith scored on throwing error by center fielder Ruiz.9–1
- 6Smith homered to right center (393 feet), Olson scored and Albies scored.8–1
- 6Albies singled to left, Harris II scored, Olson to third.5–1
- 6Olson singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Harris II to third.4–1
- 2Riley homered to center (415 feet), Albies scored and Dubón scored.3–1
- 1Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Edwards scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML ATL -186 / MIA +153
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -165
- MIA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 3.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +4 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +57 Elo | ATL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–8 | Road vs home | 15–1315th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 4th of 301539 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–15 | 19–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–12 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders | 21–25–3 | 30–17–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 29–15 MIA in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 44.