New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Young homered to left center (393 feet), Lile scored.4–8
- 8Soto homered to right (408 feet), Bichette scored.4–6
- 6Nuñez hit sacrifice bunt to first, Crews scored, Young to third.2–6
- 6Lile hit sacrifice fly to left, Abrams scored.2–5
- 3Soto homered to right (416 feet).2–4
- 2Ruiz singled to left, Nuñez scored.1–4
- 2Baty singled to right, Vientos scored.1–3
- 1Abrams homered to right center (389 feet), Mead scored and Chaparro scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -126 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.1%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.9 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −7 | NYM: Zac Thornton (no track record yet) · WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +22 Elo | NYM 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 9–1529th of 30 |
| 30th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 145828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–28 | 28–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23–5 | 31–14–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 27–17 WSH in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 44.