New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soto homered to center (434 feet).6–9
- 4Abrams grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wood scored on error by catcher Torrens and Tena scored on error, Abrams second.5–9
- 3Vivas hit sacrifice fly to left, Lile scored.5–7
- 3Abrams scored on a passed ball by Torrens, Lile to second on passed ball by Torrens.5–6
- 3Abrams scored on a passed ball by Torrens, Lile to second on passed ball by Torrens.5–6
- 3Tena homered to left center (389 feet).5–5
- 2Wood homered to left center (379 feet), Vivas scored, Millas scored and Nuñez scored.5–4
- 2Bichette homered to left (400 feet), Benge scored.5–0
- 1Semien hit sacrifice fly to left, Soto scored.3–0
- 1Bichette homered to center (406 feet), Benge scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML NYM -134 / WSH +111
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.2%, market 54.7%
- Fair odds
- NYM -121
- WSH +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +29 Elo | NYM 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 8–1530th of 30 |
| 30th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 145528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–27 | 27–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 19–23–5 | 30–14–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 27–16 WSH in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 43.