New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-6, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 12Wood singled to right, Millas scored.16–7
- 12Bichette doubled to center, Benge scored and Senger scored.16–6
- 12Benge doubled to center, Semien scored and Ewing scored, Senger to third.14–6
- 12Umpire reviewed (rules check), call on the field was upheld: A.J. Ewing singles on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Brett Baty scores. Marcus Semien to 2nd.12–6
- 12Semien singled to left, Bruján scored, Baty to third.11–6
- 12Baty singled to center, Bichette scored and Soto scored, Baty to second, Bruján to third.10–6
- 12Bruján reached on bunt single to pitcher, Benge scored, Soto to second, Bichette to third.8–6
- 12Benge reached on infield single to second, Taylor scored.7–6
- 11Wiemer grounded into fielder's choice to third, Abrams scored.6–6
- 11Semien hit sacrifice fly to left, Bruján scored.6–5
- 8Mead doubled to right, Wood scored.5–5
- 7Abrams hit sacrifice fly to center, Wood scored, Mead to third.5–4
- 7Bichette homered to left (409 feet).5–3
- 5Soto singled to left, Torrens scored and Benge scored.4–3
- 4Baty homered to center (451 feet).2–3
- 3Wiemer doubled to right, House scored, Lile to third.1–3
- 2Millas singled to center, Tena scored, Vivas to second.1–2
- 2Tena doubled to left, Wiemer scored.1–1
- 2Torrens doubled to left, Taylor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / WSH +104
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.4%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -113
- WSH +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.1 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −3 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +9 Elo | NYM 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 8–1429th of 30 |
| 29th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 15th of 301495 | Elo rating | 145928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–27 | 27–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 18–23–5 | 29–14–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 26–16 WSH in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 42.