New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-4
- Cade CavalliPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Chaparro grounded out to third, Ruiz scored, Wood to third.2–1
- 3Bichette singled to center, Melendez scored and Torrens scored, Benge to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 50%
- ML NYM -112 / WSH -108
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 49.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -102
- WSH +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −9 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 1.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +1 Elo | WSH 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.61st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 20th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 10–1527th of 30 |
| 30th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 16th of 301493 | Elo rating | 146028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–29 | 29–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–22 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 21–23–5 | 32–14–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 27–18 WSH in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 45.