Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-1, 1 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-4
- Martin PerezPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9White grounded into fielder's choice to second, Albies scored, Riley safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Nuñez.2–1
- 8García Jr. singled to right, Wood scored.2–0
- 5Nuñez singled to right, Lile scored, Young to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML WSH +130 / ATL -157
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 63.5%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -141
- WSH +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −1 | WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +96 Elo | ATL 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 17–92nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 28th of 301461 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–22 | 36–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 23–14 |
| Underdog | 28–18 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 33–16–4 | 24–26–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 19–26 ATL in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 45.