Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jorbit VivasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting1-4
- Grant HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 5Vivas homered to right (364 feet).2–0
- 4Crews homered to left (396 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 61%
- ML WSH +143 / ATL -173
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 66.3%, market 60.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -154
- WSH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −2 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +117 Elo | ATL 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 17–82nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 30 |
| 28th of 301459 | Elo rating | 15454th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–22 | 36–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 23–13 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 33–15–4 | 24–25–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 18–26 ATL in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 44.