Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mets- Marcus SemienBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Benge grounded out to shortstop, Baty scored.7–2
- 6Semien homered to left center (403 feet).7–1
- 4Stephenson homered to left (367 feet), Steer scored.7–0
- 4Steer singled to center, Suárez and Lowe scored.5–0
- 3Bleday homered to right center (409 feet).3–0
- 2Suárez scored, Steer to second on wild pitch by McLean.2–0
- 2Suárez scored on McLean wild pitch, Steer to second on wild pitch by McLean.2–0
- 2Steer grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stewart scored, Lowe out at second, Suárez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 54%
- ML CIN +109 / NYM -132
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +21 Elo | NYM 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 11–1325th of 30 |
| 28th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148530th of 30 |
| 16th of 301491 | Elo rating | 148918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–23 | 22–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 13–22 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 32–19–1 | 21–27–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 10–8 NYM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.