New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vientos singled to left, Taylor scored.1–4
- 5Hicks homered to right (356 feet).0–4
- 3Hicks homered to right center (389 feet).0–3
- 2Caissie doubled to right, Marsee scored and Norby scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 50%
- ML NYM -108 / MIA -112
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.7%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -102
- NYM +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +9 | NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +5 Elo | MIA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 21st of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 16–1517th of 30 |
| 30th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 15th of 301493 | Elo rating | 147526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–29 | 19–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–22 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 8–16 |
| Overs–unders | 21–25–5 | 32–18–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 22–18 MIA in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 40.