New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Owen CaissieBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Caissie singled to center, Ruiz scored.1–2
- 2Caissie grounded out to first, Ruiz scored.1–1
- 1Soto homered to right center (449 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 52%
- ML NYM -101 / MIA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 48.1%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | NYM: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +13 Elo | NYM 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 15–1516th of 30 |
| 30th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 15th of 301494 | Elo rating | 147425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–29 | 19–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–22 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 8–16 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24–5 | 32–17–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 22–17 MIA in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 39.