Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stott homered to right (360 feet), Sosa scored.4–5
- 8Steer doubled to left, McLain scored.4–3
- 7Stewart homered to right (361 feet).3–3
- 6Bohm homered to center (409 feet).2–3
- 2Friedl hit sacrifice fly to center, Lowe scored.2–2
- 2Stephenson singled to right, Stewart scored, Lowe to third.1–2
- 1García hit sacrifice fly to right, Harper scored.0–2
- 1Sosa hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored, Harper to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML CIN +104 / PHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.8%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -113
- CIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.9 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +47 Elo | PHI 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 12–1218th of 30 |
| 28th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 15247th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–21 | 18–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–16–1 | 23–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 10–10 PHI in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.