Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7De La Cruz walked, Stephenson scored, McLain to second, Hayes to third.4–1
- 7Reds challenged (force play), call on the field was overturned: Matt McLain reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Bryce Harper. Blake Dunn scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. Ke'Bryan H3–1
- 4Bleday hit sacrifice fly to center, Steer scored, Stewart to third.2–1
- 4Myers hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored, Stewart to second, Steer to third.1–1
- 3Turner homered to left (409 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML CIN +124 / PHI -149
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.8%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -134
- CIN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −1 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +40 Elo | PHI 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 13–1218th of 30 |
| 28th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149226th of 30 |
| 20th of 301487 | Elo rating | 15257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–21 | 18–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–17–1 | 23–23–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 10–11 PHI in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.