St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chase PettyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 11Umpire reviewed (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Blake Dunn reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Masyn Winn. Spencer Steer scores. Dane Myers to 2nd.6–7
- 9Walker singled to left, Scott II scored, Burleson to second.6–6
- 9Fermín homered to left center (373 feet).5–6
- 6Myers doubled to left, Steer scored.4–6
- 6Walker homered to center (427 feet), Herrera scored and Burleson scored.4–5
- 5Lowe homered to center (435 feet), Stewart scored.1–5
- 5De La Cruz homered to left center (387 feet), Higgins scored and Dunn scored.1–3
- 2Winn hit sacrifice fly to left, Walker scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML STL -106 / CIN -114
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 48.9%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.0 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −14 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Petty: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +8 Elo | STL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3016–8 | Road vs home | 13–1214th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148929th of 30 |
| 15th of 301492 | Elo rating | 148918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–20 | 29–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–25–3 | 31–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 21–19 CIN in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 40.