Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stewart homered to left (441 feet), Bleday scored.9–4
- 7Lowe doubled to center, Bleday scored and Stewart scored.7–4
- 6Sosa homered to left (396 feet), Marsh scored.5–4
- 6Bohm homered to left (353 feet).5–2
- 6Myers doubled to right, Dunn scored.5–1
- 4Higgins singled to right, Dunn scored.4–1
- 2Higgins singled to left, Lowe scored.3–1
- 2Benson grounded out to first, Steer scored, Lowe to third.2–1
- 2Lowe doubled to right, Stewart scored, Steer to third.1–1
- 1Harper hit sacrifice fly to left, Turner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML CIN +130 / PHI -157
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.2%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -141
- CIN +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −7 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +44 Elo | PHI 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 13–1318th of 30 |
| 28th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149226th of 30 |
| 17th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–21 | 18–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–18–1 | 23–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 11–11 PHI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.