St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Reds- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torres homered to right center (377 feet), Winn scored.8–1
- 8Herrera tripled to right, Scott II scored.6–1
- 7Walker homered to right center (389 feet), Herrera scored.5–1
- 4Wetherholt reached on infield single to second, Winn scored, Scott II to second, Torres to third.3–1
- 3Walker grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Herrera scored, Burleson out at second.2–1
- 3Burleson singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.1–1
- 2Lowe homered to right (398 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML STL -105 / CIN -114
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.0%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.0 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −12 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +14 Elo | CIN 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3015–8 | Road vs home | 13–1112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148929th of 30 |
| 18th of 301489 | Elo rating | 149316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–20 | 29–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24–3 | 31–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 20–19 CIN in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 39.