Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Blake DunnBatting3-6
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jonah TongPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Benge singled to center, Young scored.2–4
- 6Stewart reached on infield single to third, Stephenson scored, De La Cruz to second, Dunn to third.2–3
- 5Benge singled to center, Baty scored, Torrens to third.1–3
- 3Lowe singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Suárez to third.1–2
- 2Wagaman homered to left (415 feet).0–2
- 1Soto homered to right (366 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML CIN +102 / NYM -123
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.7%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- NYM -111
- CIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Huascar Brazoban: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +12 Elo | NYM 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 11–1526th of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148530th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 148421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–23 | 22–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–19–1 | 23–27–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 12–8 NYM in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.