Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stewart singled to right, Dunn scored, De La Cruz to third.7–2
- 6Soto homered to right center (384 feet), Bichette scored.6–2
- 6Stephenson doubled to left, Bleday scored on error, Stephenson safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Bichette.6–0
- 4De La Cruz doubled to right, McLain scored and Stephenson scored.5–0
- 4Stephenson singled to right, Myers scored, Bleday to third.3–0
- 1Suárez doubled to center, Steer scored and Stewart scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML CIN -122 / NYM +101
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.4%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- CIN -110
- NYM +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 3.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −16 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +24 Elo | CIN 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 12th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 11–1425th of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148630th of 30 |
| 16th of 301493 | Elo rating | 148620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–23 | 22–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 33–19–1 | 22–27–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 11–8 NYM in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.