Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Caleb DurbinBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Payton TollePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Albies homered to center (416 feet), Olson scored.10–2
- 7Harris II homered to right (396 feet).8–2
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to left center (417 feet), Mateo scored, Smith scored and Yastrzemski scored.7–2
- 6Yastrzemski walked, Harris II scored, Smith to second, Mateo to third.3–2
- 4Duran singled to left, Durbin scored.2–2
- 4Durbin doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored, Durbin to third.2–1
- 4Smith singled to left, Albies scored, Mateo to third.2–0
- 4Mateo reached on infield single to second, Olson scored, Albies to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML ATL -142 / BOS +118
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.1%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −11 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 1.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +42 Elo | ATL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–9 | Road vs home | 9–1830th of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 30 |
| 4th of 301539 | Elo rating | 151013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–19 | 22–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–15 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–27–4 | 24–28–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–9 BOS in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.