Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jorge MateoBatting2-4
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connelly EarlyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran homered to right (400 feet).0–8
- 7Mayer singled to right, Gasper scored.0–7
- 4Abreu singled to center, Duran scored and Rafaela scored.0–6
- 4Rafaela singled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored and Mayer scored, Duran to second, Duran safe at third on fielding error by catcher Tromp.0–4
- 4Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Gasper scored, Mayer to second.0–2
- 4Yoshida scored on error, Mayer safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Olson, Gasper safe at third on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML ATL -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +11 Elo | ATL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–8 | Road vs home | 8–1830th of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 150713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–18 | 21–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–15 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 14–3 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–27–3 | 24–28–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–8 BOS in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.