Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- JJ BledayBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 6Harris II singled to center, Mateo scored and Yastrzemski scored, Acuña Jr. to second.8–3
- 6Mateo singled to left, Riley scored, Mateo to second, Yastrzemski to third.6–3
- 6Yastrzemski doubled to right, Smith scored, Riley to third.5–3
- 5Stewart singled to right, Friedl scored, Bleday to third.4–3
- 4Lowe homered to right (390 feet).4–2
- 4Bleday homered to right (393 feet).4–1
- 2Harris II singled to right, Mateo scored, Acuña Jr. to third.4–0
- 2Tromp hit sacrifice fly to right, Riley scored.3–0
- 2Mateo grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Smith scored, Yastrzemski out at second, Riley to third.2–0
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to left center (429 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML ATL -136 / CIN +113
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -123
- CIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −14 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +43 Elo | ATL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3021–9 | Road vs home | 14–1213th of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 149415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–19 | 31–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–15 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–27–4 | 34–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 12–7 CIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.