Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Dunn singled to right, Steer scored.3–4
- 9Benson homered to right (360 feet).3–3
- 8Steer homered to right center (374 feet).3–2
- 5Steer homered to left center (420 feet).3–1
- 4Massey singled to center, Loftin scored and Marte scored, Tolbert to third.3–0
- 4Caglianone grounded out to second, Perez scored, Loftin to second, Marte to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML KC +107 / CIN -128
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.3%, market 53.7%
- Fair odds
- CIN -116
- KC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +37 Elo | CIN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 30th of 308–20 | Road vs home | 15–1517th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149127th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301481 | Elo rating | 148818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–30 | 32–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31–1 | 37–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–5 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.