Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Acuña Jr. singled to center, Smith scored, Yastrzemski to second.4–6
- 7Suárez homered to center (387 feet).3–6
- 6Higgins doubled to right, Steer scored.3–5
- 6Riley hit sacrifice fly to center, Harris II scored, Albies to third.3–4
- 5Suárez hit sacrifice fly to right, McLain scored.2–4
- 5Mateo homered to left center (425 feet).2–3
- 4Benson doubled to right, Steer scored on fielding error by right fielder Acuña Jr..1–3
- 3Bleday doubled to right, De La Cruz scored.1–2
- 1Bleday doubled to right, De La Cruz scored.1–1
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to left center (438 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -125 / CIN +104
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.5%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -113
- CIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +1 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–9 | Road vs home | 14–1417th of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149127th of 30 |
| 4th of 301545 | Elo rating | 149017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–19 | 31–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–15 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 27–28–4 | 35–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 14–7 CIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.