Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Lane ThomasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Reds- JJ BledayBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon LeibrandtPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9McLain doubled to left, Arroyo scored.9–2
- 9Loftin hit sacrifice fly to center, Thomas scored.9–1
- 7Massey homered to right center (390 feet).8–1
- 6Pasquantino singled to right, Loftin scored, Witt Jr. to third.7–1
- 5Caglianone homered to center (419 feet), Witt Jr. scored.6–1
- 1Bleday homered to right center (380 feet).4–1
- 1Thomas homered to left center (409 feet), Jensen scored, Witt Jr. scored and Caglianone scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML KC +109 / CIN -131
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.5%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | 0 | KC: Luinder Avila: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CIN: Lyon Richardson: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +39 Elo | CIN 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–20 | Road vs home | 15–1416th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149127th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–30 | 32–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders | 27–31–1 | 36–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–5 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.