Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Garcia grounded out to shortstop, Caglianone scored, Massey to second.3–5
- 6Arcia scored on Wacha wild pitch.2–5
- 6Arcia scored on Wacha wild pitch.2–5
- 6Arcia singled to right, Bell scored on throwing error by right fielder Caglianone, Arcia to second.2–4
- 6Bell doubled to left, Clemens scored.2–3
- 6Lee homered to right (380 feet).2–2
- 3Lee grounded into fielder's choice to second, Jackson scored, Gray out at second.2–1
- 1Caglianone doubled to center, Pasquantino scored.2–0
- 1Pasquantino doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML KC +100 / MIN -121
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.7%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -110
- KC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −5 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +2 Elo | KC 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 29th of 3010–21 | Road vs home | 17–1618th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 146927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–30 | 33–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 26–19 |
| Overs–unders | 29–33–1 | 36–22–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 20–23 MIN in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 43.